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Orbán defies EU partners again with Moscow visit focused on energy deals
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić before travelling to Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin. Orbán, widely viewed as Putin’s closest ally in the EU, again positioned himself as a mediator, with Putin thanking him for suggesting Budapest as a possible venue for a "peace summit". The idea collapsed after Moscow refused to compromise on its conditions for ending the conflict. As his Fidesz party faces an election in April, Orbán has continued to frame himself as a champion of “peace,” while accusing EU leaders of “war-mongering” for resisting elements of Trump’s 28-point peace plan.
Energy concerns dominated the visit. Orbán has repeatedly opposed EU efforts to phase out Russian oil and gas, and has presented the Moscow trip as part of a regional strategy to secure winter supplies for Hungary, Slovakia, and Serbia. Earlier this month, in Washington, he obtained a one-year sanctions waiver on Russian fuel purchases. Hungary currently relies on Russia for more than 80% of its oil and gas and all of its nuclear fuel, and Orbán argues that without agreements with both Washington and Moscow, heating prices would surge. Despite recent deals to buy US LNG and nuclear fuel, which could reduce Hungarian demand for Russian energy, he is under EU pressure to end all Russian imports by 2027. Putin praised Orban's approach to the war during their meeting: “We are aware of your balanced position on the Ukrainian issue.”
Political analyst Daniel Hegedüs of the German Marshall Fund wrote Orbán’s Moscow trip should be viewed “primarily in light of yesterday’s Orbán–Vučić meeting, rather than the peace-negotiation rollercoaster of the past week.” According to Hegedüs, one concrete outcome could be Putin’s approval for Hungarian energy firm MOL to acquire a majority stake in Serbia’s NIS, whose refinery in Pančevo has been constrained by US sanctions targeting its Russian ownership structure. With oil supplies to the refinery unresolved, he noted that deciding whether MOL or the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company ultimately takes over Gazprom’s shares “will clearly be a strategic geopolitical and geo-economic decision from the Russian side.” In his words, “this is the real stake of Orbán’s Moscow trip, despite all the negative optics.”
New Median poll: Tisza's advantage over Fidesz is decreasing
Opposition Tisza party continues to lead, but is now only 5 percentage points ahead of Fidesz among the entire voting-age population, according to Hungarian pollster Medián's November survey, HVG reports. Since the beginning of September, Fidesz has improved by 3 percentage points and Tisza by 1 percentage point. It means that the number of undecided voters is steadily decreasing, similarly to Tisza's lead.
Among the entire population, Tisza stands at 38 percent, Fidesz at 33 percent, the far-right Mi Hazánk at 5 percent, and undecided voters at 19 percent. Péter Magyar's party lead narrowed by 4 percentage points to 6 points among those who are eligible to vote (Tisza 47%, Fidesz 41%), while among those who say they are certain to vote, the difference decreased by 3 percentage points, and Tisza now leads Fidesz 50-40.
According to Medián, Tisza may have further cause for concern as public sentiment appears to be changing, and the proportion of those who want a change of government has fallen significantly. This figure has decreased from 60 percent in September to 52 percent, the lowest level since the summer of 2024.
Bosnia blocks Szijjarto's plane from landing
Bosnia blocked a military aircraft carrying Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó from landing in the Bosnian Serb Republic on Wednesday, arguing that Budapest had backed actions that undermine Bosnia’s sovereignty. Zukan Helez said Hungary had not clarified why Szijjártó was aboard the plane seeking permission to land in Banja Luka, the administrative centre of the Serb-majority entity. Szijjártó had been in neighbouring Serbia earlier in the day to discuss how Hungary could assist Belgrade after crude oil deliveries from Croatia were halted. Helez accused Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Szijjártó of openly supporting Bosnian Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik in moves that threaten Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territorial integrity and unity.
In a Facebook post, Helez said it was his responsibility to uphold Bosnia’s constitutional order and national interests, and for that reason, he refused to approve the landing until Hungary provided full transparency and respect for the state. The Hungarian foreign ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Dodik, the former president of the Serb Republic, removed from duty following his conviction for ignoring rulings by the international peace envoy and constitutional court, has repeatedly highlighted Orbán’s backing. On Wednesday, Dodik and his ally Sinisa Karan, who, according to preliminary results, won the region’s snap presidential election, held talks with Orbán in Budapest.